Examinando por Autor "Gustafson, Paul"

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  • Publicación
    Acceso abierto
    Household, community, sub-national and country-level predictors of primary cooking fuel switching in nine countries from the PURE study
    (IOP Publishing Ltd, 2019-07-29) Shupler, Matthew; Hystad, Perry; Gustafson, Paul; Rangarajan, Sumathy; Mushtaha, Maha; Jayachtria, K.G.; Mony, Prem K.; Mohan, Deepa; Kumar, Parthiban; Lakshmi, P.V.M.; Sagar, Vivek; Gupta, Rajeev; Mohan, Indu; Nair, Sanjeev; Prasad Varma, Ravi; Li, Wei; Hu, Bo; You, Kai; Ncube, Tatenda; Ncube, Brian; Chifamba, Jephat; West, Nicola; Yeates, Karen; Iqbal, Romaina; Khawaja, Rehman; Yusuf, Rita; Khan, Afreen; Seron, Pamela; Lanas, Fernando; Lopez-Jaramillo, Patricio; Camacho López, Paul Anthony; Puoane, Thandi; Yusuf, Salim; Brauer, Michael; The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study; Everest
    Introduction. Switching from polluting (e.g. wood, crop waste, coal) to clean (e.g. gas, electricity) cooking fuels can reduce household air pollution exposures and climate-forcing emissions. While studies have evaluated specific interventions and assessed fuel-switching in repeated cross-sectional surveys, the role of different multilevel factors in household fuel switching, outside of interventions and across diverse community settings, is not well understood. Methods. We examined longitudinal survey data from 24 172 households in 177 rural communities across nine countries within the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology study. We assessed household-level primary cooking fuel switching during a median of 10 years of follow up (∼2005–2015). We used hierarchical logistic regression models to examine the relative importance of household, community, sub-national and national-level factors contributing to primary fuel switching. Results. One-half of study households (12 369) reported changing their primary cooking fuels between baseline and follow up surveys. Of these, 61% (7582) switched from polluting (wood, dung, agricultural waste, charcoal, coal, kerosene) to clean (gas, electricity) fuels, 26% (3109) switched between different polluting fuels, 10% (1164) switched from clean to polluting fuels and 3% (522) switched between different clean fuels. Among the 17 830 households using polluting cooking fuels at baseline, household-level factors (e.g. larger household size, higher wealth, higher education level) were most strongly associated with switching from polluting to clean fuels in India; in all other countries, community-level factors (e.g. larger population density in 2010, larger increase in population density between 2005 and 2015) were the strongest predictors of polluting-to-clean fuel switching. Conclusions. The importance of community and sub-national factors relative to household characteristics in determining polluting-to-clean fuel switching varied dramatically across the nine countries examined. This highlights the potential importance of national and other contextual factors in shaping large-scale clean cooking transitions among rural communities in low- and middle-income countries.
  • Publicación
    Acceso abierto
    Multinational prediction of household and personal exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the PURE cohort study
    (Elsevier, 2022-01-15) Shupler, Matthew; Hystad, Perry; Birch, Aaron; Li Chu, Yen; Jeronimo, Matthew; Miller-Lionberg, Daniel; Gustafson, Paul; Rangarajan, Sumathy; Mustaha, Maha; Heenan, Laura; Seron, Pamela; Lanas, Fernando; Cazor, Fairuz; Oliveros, Maria Jose; Lopez-Jaramillo, Patricio; Camacho López, Paul Anthony; Otero, Johanna; Perez, Maritza; Yeates, Karen; West, Nicola; Ncube, Tatenda; Ncube, Brian; Chifamba, Jephat; Yusuf, Rita; Khan, Afreen; Liu, Zhiguang; Wu, Shutong; Wei, Li; Tse, Lap Ah; Mohan, Deepa; Kuma, Parthiban; Gupta, Rajeev; Mohan, Indu; Jayachitra, K.G.; Mony, Prem; Rammohan, Kamala; Nair, Sanjeev; Lakshmi, P.V.M.; Sagar, Vivek; Khawaja, Rehman; Iqbal, Romaina; Kazmi, Khawar; Yusuf, Salim; Brauer, Michael; PURE-AIR study investigators; Masira
    Abstract Introduction Use of polluting cooking fuels generates household air pollution (HAP) containing health-damaging levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Many global epidemiological studies rely on categorical HAP exposure indicators, which are poor surrogates of measured PM2.5 levels. To quantitatively characterize HAP levels on a large scale, a multinational measurement campaign was leveraged to develop household and personal PM2.5 exposure models. Methods The Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology (PURE)-AIR study included 48-hour monitoring of PM2.5 kitchen concentrations (n = 2,365) and male and/or female PM2.5 exposure monitoring (n = 910) in a subset of households in Bangladesh, Chile, China, Colombia, India, Pakistan, Tanzania and Zimbabwe. PURE-AIR measurements were combined with survey data on cooking environment characteristics in hierarchical Bayesian log-linear regression models. Model performance was evaluated using leave-one-out cross validation. Predictive models were applied to survey data from the larger PURE cohort (22,480 households; 33,554 individuals) to quantitatively estimate PM2.5 exposures. Results The final models explained half (R2 = 54%) of the variation in kitchen PM2.5 measurements (root mean square error (RMSE) (log scale):2.22) and personal measurements (R2 = 48%; RMSE (log scale):2.08). Primary cooking fuel type, heating fuel type, country and season were highly predictive of PM2.5 kitchen concentrations. Average national PM2.5 kitchen concentrations varied nearly 3-fold among households primarily cooking with gas (20 μg/m3 (Chile); 55 μg/m3 (China)) and 12-fold among households primarily cooking with wood (36 μg/m3 (Chile)); 427 μg/m3 (Pakistan)). Average PM2.5 kitchen concentration, heating fuel type, season and secondhand smoke exposure were significant predictors of personal exposures. Modeled average PM2.5 female exposures were lower than male exposures in upper-middle/high-income countries (India, China, Colombia, Chile). Conclusion Using survey data to estimate PM2.5 exposures on a multinational scale can cost-effectively scale up quantitative HAP measurements for disease burden assessments. The modeled PM2.5 exposures can be used in future epidemiological studies and inform policies targeting HAP reduction.