Dengue in Santander State, Colombia: fluctuations in the prevalence of virus serotypes are linked to dengue incidence and genetic diversity of the circulating viruses
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objectiveTo investigate the link between fluctuations in the prevalence of dengue virus (DENV)serotypes and the number of dengue cases in the metropolitan area of Bucaramanga, Santander State,Colombia, in the 2007–2010 and 2014–2017 periods.methodViruses were isolated from febrile patient samples by direct application to C6/36-HT cellsand typed using monoclonal antibodies. We performed autocorrelation and cross-correlation analysesto determine whether fluctuations in the prevalence of DENV serotypes and dengue cases werecorrelated. Full envelope (E) gene sequences were employed to examine the genetic diversity ofserotypes circulating by using a phylogenetic approach.resultsAll four dengue virus serotypes were detected. DENV-1 was the dominant serotype in bothperiods followed by DENV-3 or DENV-2 depending on the period; DENV-4 was the least prevalentvirus in both periods. Cross-correlation analyses suggest a temporal relation between the fluctuationsin the prevalence of DENV serotypes, which were almost simultaneous (lag=0) or related to recentpast fluctuations (lag>1.0) in the number of dengue cases. Data suggest that a sustainedpredominance of DENV-1, an increase of the DENV-4 prevalence, and a switch from DENV-3 toDENV-2 could be linked to an outbreak. Circulating viruses were grouped into Genotype V, Asia/American III and II for DENV-1, -2, -3 and -4, respectively; intragenotypic diversity was detected.conclusionsThe present work highlights the need of comprehensive studies on dynamics of DENV inColombia to understand transmission of dengue and evaluate the effectiveness of a vaccination programme.